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Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jul 18, 2028
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
19¢ last
BidAsk
YES19¢19¢
NO81¢81¢
$52,148,937 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
20¢ last
BidAsk
YES19¢20¢
NO81¢81¢
$117,405,877 volume
Cross-venue spread 0.7¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +0.6¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread0.7¢
Kalshi last19¢
Polymarket last20¢
Venues2
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