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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs 1win - Game 1 Winner

KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 2, 2026
MarketMaster fair value84¢ vs live 64¢ on Kalshi
▲ +20.9% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
44¢ last
BidAsk
YES28¢43¢
NO57¢72¢
$14,924 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
100¢ last
BidAsk
YES100¢100¢
NO
$444,978 volume
Cross-venue spread 55.9¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 43¢ per $1 payout, locking +56.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Team Falcons wins 1win Essence 2026: 1win vs. Team Falcons Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Aug 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and 1win in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for August 2 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 1 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread55.9¢
Kalshi last44¢
Polymarket last100¢
Model fair value84¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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