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Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs Trainwrecks eSports (BO1) - Elisa BreakOut Series #1 Group B

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 31, 2026
MarketMaster fair value85¢ vs live 84¢ on Kalshi
▲ +1.3% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
83¢ last
BidAsk
YES81¢86¢
NO14¢19¢
$4,089 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
79¢ last
BidAsk
YES75¢76¢
NO24¢25¢
$4,141 volume
Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 95¢ per $1 payout, locking +5.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If RoundsGG wins the Elisa BreakOut Series #1 2026: Trainwrecks eSports vs. RoundsGG CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between RoundsGG and Trainwrecks eSports in the Elisa BreakOut Series #1 Group B, initially scheduled for July 31 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "RoundsGG" if RoundsGG win the match against Trainwrecks eSports. This market will resolve to "Trainwrecks eSports" if Trainwrecks eSports win the match against RoundsGG. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last83¢
Polymarket last79¢
Model fair value85¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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