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Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Detonate (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 27, 2026
MarketMaster fair value43¢ vs live 36¢ on Kalshi
7.6% against the midpoint, 6.1% against the 37¢ ask you would actually pay, +4.5% after the 1.63¢ taker fee.
▲ +4.5% after fees · Buy NO
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
66¢ last
BidAsk
YES63¢66¢
NO34¢37¢
$948 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
52¢ last
BidAsk
YES51¢53¢
NO47¢49¢
$13,167 volume
Cross-venue spread 14.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 90¢ per $1 payout, locking +10.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Marsborne wins the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 2026: Detonate vs. Marsborne CS2 match originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026 at 9:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Marsborne and Detonate in the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Marsborne" if Marsborne win the match against Detonate. This market will resolve to "Detonate" if Detonate win the match against Marsborne. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread14.0¢
Kalshi last66¢
Polymarket last52¢
Model fair value43¢
Model confidence38%
Venues2
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