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Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffs

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 27, 2026
MarketMaster fair value73¢ vs live 71¢ on Kalshi
2.5% against the midpoint, -1.0% against the 74¢ ask you would actually pay, -2.3% after the 1.35¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
74¢ last
BidAsk
YES67¢74¢
NO26¢33¢
$1,581 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
75¢ last
BidAsk
YES71¢75¢
NO25¢29¢
$2,039 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If FlyQuest wins the ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 2026: FlyQuest vs. THUNDER dOWNUNDER CS2 match originally scheduled for Sep 27, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Final match between FlyQuest and THUNDER dOWNUNDER in the ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against THUNDER dOWNUNDER. This market will resolve to "THUNDER dOWNUNDER" if THUNDER dOWNUNDER win the match against FlyQuest. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last74¢
Polymarket last75¢
Model fair value73¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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