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Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 28, 2026
This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →
MarketMaster fair value79¢ vs live 58¢ on Kalshi
▲ +21.1% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
31¢ last
BidAsk
YES30¢31¢
NO69¢70¢
$33,253 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
100¢ last
BidAsk
YES100¢100¢
NO
$85,262 volume
Cross-venue spread 68.9¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 31¢ per $1 payout, locking +68.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Black Phoenix wins the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 2026: Bebop vs. Black Phoenix CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 28, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Elimination match between Black Phoenix and Bebop in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D, initially scheduled for July 28 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Black Phoenix" if Black Phoenix win Map 2 against Bebop. This market will resolve to "Bebop" if Bebop win Map 2 against Black Phoenix. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread68.9¢
Kalshi last31¢
Polymarket last100¢
Model fair value79¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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