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Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Misa Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jul 29, 2026
MarketMaster fair value39¢ vs live 38¢ on Polymarket
▲ +1.3% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
63¢ last
BidAsk
YES59¢60¢
NO40¢41¢
$2,074 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
62¢ last
BidAsk
YES61¢62¢
NO38¢39¢
$4,540 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Bebop wins the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 2026: Misa Esports vs. Bebop CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 29, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between Bebop and Misa Esports in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D, initially scheduled for July 29 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Bebop" if Bebop win the match against Misa Esports. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against Bebop. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last63¢
Polymarket last62¢
Model fair value61¢
Model confidence36%
Venues2
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