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Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Nexus (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 21, 2026
MarketMaster fair value17¢ vs live 16¢ on Kalshi
1.1% against the midpoint, 0.1% against the 17¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 0.99¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
85¢ last
BidAsk
YES83¢85¢
NO15¢17¢
$1,533 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
82¢ last
BidAsk
YES81¢82¢
NO18¢19¢
$2,763 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If BC.Game Esports wins the DraculaN 2026: Nexus vs. BC.Game Esports CS2 match originally scheduled for Oct 21, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between BC.Game Esports and Nexus in the DraculaN Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BC.Game Esports" if BC.Game Esports win the match against Nexus. This market will resolve to "Nexus" if Nexus win the match against BC.Game Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 21, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last85¢
Polymarket last82¢
Model fair value17¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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