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Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 31, 2026
MarketMaster fair value54¢ vs live 48¢ on Polymarket
▲ +6.1% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
33¢ last
BidAsk
YES33¢38¢
NO62¢67¢
$66,276 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
61¢ last
BidAsk
YES47¢51¢
NO49¢53¢
$10,513 volume
Cross-venue spread 28.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 91¢ per $1 payout, locking +9.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If BASEMENT BOYS wins the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 2026: Lazer Cats vs. BASEMENT BOYS CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 31, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between BASEMENT BOYS and Lazer Cats in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 31 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BASEMENT BOYS" if BASEMENT BOYS win the match against Lazer Cats. This market will resolve to "Lazer Cats" if Lazer Cats win the match against BASEMENT BOYS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread28.0¢
Kalshi last33¢
Polymarket last61¢
Model fair value54¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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