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Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5

Post ☰ See all 5 outcomes in Washington vs San Francisco: Total Points →
KalshiPolymarket Closes Oct 20, 2026
MarketMaster fair value53¢ vs live 52¢ on Kalshi
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.9% against the 52¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.75¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
48¢ last
BidAsk
YES48¢49¢
NO51¢52¢
$80,537 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
46¢ last
BidAsk
YES46¢47¢
NO53¢54¢
$311,637 volume
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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Washington and San Francisco collectively score more than 52.5 points in the Washington vs San Francisco Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Commanders and 49ers combine to score 53 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 53, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last48¢
Polymarket last46¢
Model fair value53¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.