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Washington vs San Francisco: Total Points — Over 50.5 points

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KalshiPolymarket Closes Oct 20, 2026
MarketMaster fair value43¢ vs live 42¢ on Polymarket
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 43¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.4% after the 0.74¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
55¢ last
BidAsk
YES55¢56¢
NO44¢45¢
$63,936 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
58¢ last
BidAsk
YES57¢58¢
NO42¢43¢
$134,461 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Washington and San Francisco collectively score more than 50.5 points in the Washington vs San Francisco Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Commanders and 49ers combine to score 51 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 51, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last55¢
Polymarket last58¢
Model fair value43¢
Model confidence32%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.