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Bueno vs Pereira — Gonzalo Bueno

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jul 28, 2026
This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →
MarketMaster fair value16¢ vs live on Polymarket
▲ +12.5% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
99¢ last
BidAsk
YES99¢100¢
NO
$1,183,158 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
93¢ last
BidAsk
YES92¢95¢
NO
$207,665 volume
Cross-venue spread 6.3¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +4.1¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Gonzalo Bueno wins the Bueno vs Pereira professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Estoril Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Gonzalo Bueno and Tiago Pereira in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gonzalo Bueno' if Gonzalo Bueno advances against Tiago Pereira. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Pereira' if Tiago Pereira advances against Gonzalo Bueno. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread6.3¢
Kalshi last99¢
Polymarket last93¢
Model fair value84¢
Model confidence49%
Venues2
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