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BESTIA vs. Imperial — Imperial

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 29, 2026
MarketMaster fair value16¢ vs live on Polymarket
▲ +15.7% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
65¢ last
BidAsk
YES65¢67¢
NO33¢35¢
$85,673 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
100¢ last
BidAsk
YES100¢100¢
NO
$54,283 volume
Cross-venue spread 34.9¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 67¢ per $1 payout, locking +32.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Imperial wins the StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier 2026: BESTIA vs. Imperial CS2 match originally scheduled for Jul 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between Imperial and BESTIA in the StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 28 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Imperial" if Imperial win Map 1 against BESTIA. This market will resolve to "BESTIA" if BESTIA win Map 1 against Imperial. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread34.9¢
Kalshi last65¢
Polymarket last100¢
Model fair value84¢
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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