Skip to content
Scanner / All markets / Politics

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

Post ☰ See all 3 outcomes in Bab El Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed By →
Polymarket Closes Dec 1, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
10¢ last
BidAsk
YES9¢10¢
NO90¢91¢
$20,658 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last10¢
Venues2
TRACK THIS MARKET

Get an email the moment the price or edge moves — watchlists, whale alerts and the full scanner are free to start.

Start free — no card
ELSEWHERE
RELATED MARKETS
Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Gavin NewsomWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez