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334: Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland — Kevin Holland

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 15, 2026
MarketMaster fair value61¢ vs live 58¢ on Polymarket
3.1% against the midpoint, -2.9% against the 64¢ ask you would actually pay, -4.1% after the 1.15¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
37¢ last
BidAsk
YES36¢37¢
NO63¢64¢
$6,910 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
42¢ last
BidAsk
YES36¢42¢
NO58¢64¢
$1,872 volume
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Cross-venue spread 5.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Kevin Holland wins the Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Kevin Holland" if Kevin Holland is officially declared the winner of the fight against Uroš Medic at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Uroš Medic" if Uroš Medic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread5.0¢
Kalshi last37¢
Polymarket last42¢
Model fair value61¢
Model confidence32%
Venues2
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