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334: Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke — Stephen Thompson

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 15, 2026
MarketMaster fair value55¢ vs live 53¢ on Polymarket
2.0% against the midpoint, -5.0% against the 60¢ ask you would actually pay, -6.2% after the 1.20¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
57¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢57¢
NO43¢44¢
$4,908 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
53¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢60¢
NO40¢47¢
$2,307 volume
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Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Stephen Thompson wins the Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Stephen Thompson" if Stephen Thompson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charles Radtke at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Charles Radtke" if Charles Radtke is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last57¢
Polymarket last53¢
Model fair value55¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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