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331: Pitbull vs Choi — Patricio Pitbull

Post

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 20, 2026

MarketMaster fair value70¢ vs live 69¢ on Polymarket

1.3% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 70¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.05¢ taker fee.

No edge after fees

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

29¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	28¢	29¢
NO	71¢	72¢

$19,522 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

31¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	30¢	31¢
NO	69¢	70¢

$9,681 volume

Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window

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Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Patricio Pitbull wins the Pitbull vs Choi professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Patricio Pitbull" if Patricio Pitbull is officially declared the winner of the fight against Dooho Choi at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. It will resolve to "Dooho Choi" if Dooho Choi is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread2.0¢

Kalshi last29¢

Polymarket last31¢

Model fair value70¢

Model confidence35%

Venues2

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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.