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2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Marco Rubio

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2029
MarketMaster fair value16¢ vs live 14¢ on Polymarket
▲ +2.0% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
17¢ last
BidAsk
YES17¢18¢
NO82¢83¢
$4,435,124 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
14¢ last
BidAsk
YES14¢14¢
NO86¢86¢
$11,134,666 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.4¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 97¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.2¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Marco Rubio is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.4¢
Kalshi last17¢
Polymarket last14¢
Model fair value16¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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