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2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Gavin Newsom

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jan 21, 2029
MarketMaster fair value vs live on Polymarket
1.1% against the midpoint, 1.1% against the 7¢ ask you would actually pay, +0.8% after the 0.27¢ taker fee.
▲ +0.8% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
10¢ last
BidAsk
YES10¢
NO91¢91¢
$4,225,808 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO93¢93¢
$18,437,739 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.4¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.4¢
Kalshi last10¢
Polymarket last
Model fair value
Model confidence20%
Venues2
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