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Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jan 1, 2029
MarketMaster fair value94¢ vs live 91¢ on Kalshi
▲ +2.5% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
13¢ last
BidAsk
YES12¢
NO88¢94¢
$5,512 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO94¢95¢
$48,272 volume
Cross-venue spread 7.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 100¢ per $1 payout, locking +0.2¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska happens in Russia before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread7.0¢
Kalshi last13¢
Polymarket last
Model fair value
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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