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Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

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Polymarket Closes Jan 1, 2027
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
76¢ last
BidAsk
YES69¢75¢
NO25¢31¢
$31,313 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last76¢
Venues2
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