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Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Dec 31, 2027
MarketMaster fair value47¢ vs live 44¢ on Polymarket
▲ +2.8% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
50¢ last
BidAsk
YES49¢50¢
NO50¢51¢
$1,062,539 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
45¢ last
BidAsk
YES43¢45¢
NO55¢57¢
$44,366 volume
Cross-venue spread 5.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +4.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If The Odyssey has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread5.0¢
Kalshi last50¢
Polymarket last45¢
Model fair value47¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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