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Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

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KalshiPolymarket Closes Sep 13, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
16¢ last
BidAsk
YES10¢17¢
NO83¢90¢
$2,940 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
39¢ last
BidAsk
YES19¢34¢
NO66¢81¢
$4,309 volume
Cross-venue spread 23.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.1¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Liberals is the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the sixth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If fewer than six parties win seats in the Riksdag, or if voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the sixth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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STATS
Cross-venue spread23.0¢
Kalshi last16¢
Polymarket last39¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.