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Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?

Post ☰ See all 11 outcomes in How Low Will 5 Year Treasury Yield Get Before 2027 →
Polymarket Closes Jan 1, 2027
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
58¢ last
BidAsk
YES55¢59¢
NO41¢45¢
$20,696 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question — it frames this release differently, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Kalshi last—
Polymarket last58¢
Venues2
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