Skip to content
Scanner / All markets / Economics

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?

Post ☰ See all 12 outcomes in How Low Will 5 Year Treasury Yield Get Before 2027 →
Polymarket Closes Dec 31, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
10¢ last
BidAsk
YES10¢11¢
NO89¢90¢
$21,502 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question — it frames this release differently, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last10¢
Venues2
TRACK THIS MARKET

Get an email the moment the price or edge moves — watchlists, whale alerts and the full scanner are free to start.

Start free — no card
ELSEWHERE
RELATED MARKETS
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?76¢Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?Next Fed rate hike? — Before 2027Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.