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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?

Post ☰ See all 4 outcomes in How Low Will 10 Year Treasury Yield Get Before 2027 →
Polymarket Closes Dec 31, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
8¢ last
BidAsk
YES9¢11¢
NO89¢91¢
$20,742 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question — it frames this release differently, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last8¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.