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Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Aug 22, 2028
MarketMaster fair value vs live on Kalshi
▲ +5.4% edge · Buy YES
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LIVE PRICES — YES
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BidAsk
YES
NO
PolymarketTrade ↗
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BidAsk
YES13¢
NO87¢91¢
$7,727 volume
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread
Kalshi last
Polymarket last
Model fair value
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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