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Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

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Polymarket Closes Jan 1, 2027
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
46¢ last
BidAsk
YES44¢47¢
NO53¢56¢
$164,531 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last46¢
Venues2
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