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Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?

Post ☰ See all 3 outcomes in Flavio Bolsonaro Returns To Brazil By →
Polymarket Closes Jan 1, 2027
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
87¢ last
BidAsk
YES85¢88¢
NO12¢15¢
$18,933 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last87¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.