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Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

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Polymarket Closes Jan 1, 2028
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
38¢ last
BidAsk
YES39¢40¢
NO60¢61¢
$49,473 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last38¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.