Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi — primary rule

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $149999.99 starting 01/01/2026 12:00 AM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.