Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alberta votes to secede from Canada before the date of the next Canadian federal general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.