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Valorant: Nova Esports vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 22, 2026
MarketMaster fair value71¢ vs live 66¢ on Kalshi
5.2% against the midpoint, -2.8% against the 74¢ ask you would actually pay, -4.2% after the 1.35¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
66¢ last
BidAsk
YES0¢74¢
NO0¢42¢
$825 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
73¢ last
BidAsk
YES72¢73¢
NO27¢28¢
$1,160 volume
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Cross-venue spread 7.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Valorant Quarterfinal 4 match between Nova Esports and Any Questions Gaming in the VCT Threshold China Week 1, initially scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win the match against Any Questions Gaming. This market will resolve to "Any Questions Gaming" if Any Questions Gaming win the match against Nova Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread7.0¢
Kalshi last66¢
Polymarket last73¢
Model fair value71¢
Model confidence14%
Venues2
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