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Valorant: KeepBest Gaming vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 29, 2026
MarketMaster fair value59¢ vs live 57¢ on Kalshi
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.9% against the 58¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.71¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
58¢ last
BidAsk
YES57¢58¢
NO42¢43¢
$1,561 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
62¢ last
BidAsk
YES60¢62¢
NO38¢40¢
$5,222 volume
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Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If KeepBest Gaming wins the VCT Threshold China 2026: KeepBest Gaming vs. Unsettled Resentment Valorant match originally scheduled for Oct 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Valorant Quarterfinal 1 match between KeepBest Gaming and Unsettled Resentment in the VCT Threshold China Week 2, initially scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "KeepBest Gaming" if KeepBest Gaming win the match against Unsettled Resentment. This market will resolve to "Unsettled Resentment" if Unsettled Resentment win the match against KeepBest Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last58¢
Polymarket last62¢
Model fair value59¢
Model confidence16%
Venues2
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