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US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 13, 2026
MarketMaster fair value58¢ vs live 56¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 57¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.72¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
57¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢57¢
NO43¢44¢
$227,203 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
59¢ last
BidAsk
YES58¢59¢
NO41¢42¢
$183,090 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alexander Zverev wins the Zverev vs Shelton professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Alexander Zverev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last57¢
Polymarket last59¢
Model fair value58¢
Model confidence53%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.