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UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

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KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 30, 2026

MarketMaster fair value42¢ vs live 41¢ on Kalshi

▲ +1.3% edge · Buy NO

Trade on Kalshi ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiTrade ↗

60¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	59¢	60¢
NO	40¢	41¢

$35,678 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

57¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	56¢	57¢
NO	43¢	44¢

$39,178 volume

Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Xiaonan Yan wins the Yan vs Gomes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yan Xiaonan" if Yan Xiaonan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Denise Gomes at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Denise Gomes" if Denise Gomes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread3.0¢

Kalshi last60¢

Polymarket last57¢

Model fair value58¢

Model confidence44%

Venues2

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