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UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)

KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 2, 2026
MarketMaster fair value74¢ vs live 73¢ on Polymarket
▲ +1.3% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
25¢ last
BidAsk
YES24¢25¢
NO75¢76¢
$59,915 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
27¢ last
BidAsk
YES26¢27¢
NO73¢74¢
$16,303 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Gilbert Urbina wins the Cepo vs Urbina professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Gilbert Urbina" if Gilbert Urbina is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vlasto Cepo at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Vlasto Cepo" if Vlasto Cepo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last25¢
Polymarket last27¢
Model fair value26¢
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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