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Tirante vs Mannarino — Thiago Agustin Tirante

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 24, 2026
MarketMaster fair value42¢ vs live 41¢ on Polymarket
1.3% against the midpoint, -3.7% against the 46¢ ask you would actually pay, -4.9% after the 1.24¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
59¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢58¢
NO42¢44¢
$6,072 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
59¢ last
BidAsk
YES54¢56¢
NO44¢46¢
$1,237 volume
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Cross-venue spread 0.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Thiago Agustin Tirante wins the Tirante vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Adrian Mannarino in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread0.0¢
Kalshi last59¢
Polymarket last59¢
Model fair value42¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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