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Timofeeva vs Kostovic — Maria Timofeeva

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 26, 2026
MarketMaster fair value62¢ vs live 60¢ on Polymarket
1.8% against the midpoint, -1.2% against the 63¢ ask you would actually pay, -2.4% after the 1.17¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
64¢ last
BidAsk
YES63¢64¢
NO36¢37¢
$5,714 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
60¢ last
BidAsk
YES62¢63¢
NO37¢38¢
$2,919 volume
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Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Maria Timofeeva wins the Timofeeva vs Kostovic professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Guangzhou Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Timofeeva and Teodora Kostovic in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Timofeeva' if Maria Timofeeva advances against Teodora Kostovic. This market will resolve to 'Teodora Kostovic' if Teodora Kostovic advances against Maria Timofeeva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.0¢
Kalshi last64¢
Polymarket last60¢
Model fair value62¢
Model confidence37%
Venues2
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