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Texas vs Arizona: Total Runs — Over 9.5 runs scored

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 12, 2026
MarketMaster fair value43¢ vs live 42¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 42¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.0% after the 0.85¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
41¢ last
BidAsk
YES41¢42¢
NO58¢59¢
$6,023 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
44¢ last
BidAsk
YES43¢44¢
NO56¢57¢
$6,522 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Texas and Arizona collectively score more 9.5 runs in the Texas vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 11, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for September 11 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks combine to score 10 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last41¢
Polymarket last44¢
Model fair value43¢
Model confidence38%
Venues2
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