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Sonmez vs Zakharova — Zeynep Sonmez

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 10, 2026
MarketMaster fair value47¢ vs live 46¢ on Polymarket
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 47¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.0% after the 1.25¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
52¢ last
BidAsk
YES51¢52¢
NO48¢49¢
$4,132 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
54¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢54¢
NO46¢47¢
$1,945 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Zeynep Sonmez wins the Sonmez vs Zakharova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Wuhan Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Zeynep Sonmez and Anastasia Zakharova in the Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zeynep Sonmez' if Zeynep Sonmez advances against Anastasia Zakharova. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Zakharova' if Anastasia Zakharova advances against Zeynep Sonmez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last52¢
Polymarket last54¢
Model fair value47¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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