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Singapore Open: Maria Sakkari vs Talia Gibson

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 25, 2026
MarketMaster fair value32¢ vs live 31¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 31¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.7% after the 1.50¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
70¢ last
BidAsk
YES69¢70¢
NO30¢31¢
$2,469 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
67¢ last
BidAsk
YES66¢67¢
NO33¢34¢
$3,588 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Maria Sakkari wins the Sakkari vs Gibson professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Singapore Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Sakkari and Talia Gibson in the Singapore Open, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Sakkari' if Maria Sakkari advances against Talia Gibson. This market will resolve to 'Talia Gibson' if Talia Gibson advances against Maria Sakkari. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last70¢
Polymarket last67¢
Model fair value32¢
Model confidence36%
Venues2
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