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Sao Paulo Open: Eva Lys vs Nadia Podoroska

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 17, 2026
MarketMaster fair value36¢ vs live 35¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 35¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.59¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
65¢ last
BidAsk
YES63¢64¢
NO36¢37¢
$4,905 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
63¢ last
BidAsk
YES62¢63¢
NO37¢38¢
$3,137 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Eva Lys wins the Lys vs Podoroska professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Sao Paulo Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Eva Lys and Nadia Podoroska in the Sao Paulo Open, originally scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Eva Lys' if Eva Lys advances against Nadia Podoroska. This market will resolve to 'Nadia Podoroska' if Nadia Podoroska advances against Eva Lys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last65¢
Polymarket last63¢
Model fair value36¢
Model confidence36%
Venues2
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