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Sabalenka vs Noskova — Aryna Sabalenka

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 8, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
72¢ last
BidAsk
YES71¢72¢
NO28¢29¢
$7,346 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
69¢ last
BidAsk
YES68¢69¢
NO31¢32¢
$2,184 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Noskova professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Women Singles Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Linda Noskova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Linda Noskova. This market will resolve to 'Linda Noskova' if Linda Noskova advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last72¢
Polymarket last69¢
Venues2
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