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Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 5, 2026
MarketMaster fair value21¢ vs live 17¢ on Kalshi
4.6% against the midpoint, 4.1% against the 17¢ ask you would actually pay, +3.1% after the 0.99¢ taker fee.
▲ +3.1% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
17¢ last
BidAsk
YES16¢17¢
NO83¢84¢
$4,771 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
22¢ last
BidAsk
YES20¢21¢
NO79¢80¢
$38,388 volume
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Cross-venue spread 5.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 97¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Matteo Berrettini wins the Berrettini vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Berrettini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread5.0¢
Kalshi last17¢
Polymarket last22¢
Model fair value21¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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