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Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenin

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 2, 2026
MarketMaster fair value70¢ vs live 67¢ on Polymarket
3.3% against the midpoint, 3.3% against the 67¢ ask you would actually pay, +2.2% after the 1.11¢ taker fee.
▲ +2.2% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
73¢ last
BidAsk
YES72¢73¢
NO27¢28¢
$442 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
67¢ last
BidAsk
YES54¢67¢
NO33¢46¢
$2,352 volume
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Cross-venue spread 6.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 95¢ per $1 payout, locking +5.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Leylah Fernandez wins the Fernandez vs Kenin professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Hong Kong Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Leylah Fernandez and Sofia Kenin in the Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Sofia Kenin. This market will resolve to 'Sofia Kenin' if Sofia Kenin advances against Leylah Fernandez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread6.0¢
Kalshi last73¢
Polymarket last67¢
Model fair value70¢
Model confidence33%
Venues2
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