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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 12, 2026
MarketMaster fair value57¢ vs live 56¢ on Kalshi
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.9% against the 56¢ ask you would actually pay, +0.0% after the 0.86¢ taker fee.
▲ +0.0% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
55¢ last
BidAsk
YES55¢56¢
NO44¢45¢
$11,580 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
58¢ last
BidAsk
YES57¢58¢
NO42¢43¢
$50,099 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Pittsburgh and Chicago C collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Pittsburgh vs Chicago C professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 at 2:20 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for September 12 at 2:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last55¢
Polymarket last58¢
Model fair value57¢
Model confidence46%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.