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Pan Pacific Open: Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 29, 2026
MarketMaster fair value22¢ vs live 21¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 21¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.3% after the 1.16¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
80¢ last
BidAsk
YES79¢80¢
NO20¢21¢
$1,541 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
77¢ last
BidAsk
YES77¢78¢
NO22¢23¢
$3,275 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Naomi Osaka wins the Osaka vs Pohankova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Tokyo Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Mia Pohankova in the Pan Pacific Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Mia Pohankova. This market will resolve to 'Mia Pohankova' if Mia Pohankova advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last80¢
Polymarket last77¢
Model fair value22¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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