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Norway vs England — England advances

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Aug 8, 2026
MarketMaster fair value51¢ vs live 32¢ on Polymarket
▲ +19.2% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
33¢ last
BidAsk
YES32¢33¢
NO67¢68¢
$46,860,191 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
31¢ last
BidAsk
YES31¢31¢
NO69¢69¢
$13,020,287 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +0.7¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Norway advance past England in the Norway vs England soccer match in the Quarterfinal of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This market will resolve to "England" if England is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the game is canceled entirely and no team advances from this match, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last33¢
Polymarket last31¢
Model fair value51¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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