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Ningbo Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Sara Bejlek

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 21, 2026
MarketMaster fair value70¢ vs live 68¢ on Kalshi
1.6% against the midpoint, 0.6% against the 69¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.50¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
69¢ last
BidAsk
YES67¢69¢
NO31¢33¢
$811 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
71¢ last
BidAsk
YES68¢69¢
NO31¢32¢
$1,547 volume
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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Sorana Cirstea wins the Cirstea vs Bejlek professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Sorana Cirstea and Sara Bejlek in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Sara Bejlek. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Sorana Cirstea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last69¢
Polymarket last71¢
Model fair value70¢
Model confidence32%
Venues2
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